Quick Answer
Most business owners don't experience their own concentration risk
as risk - it just looks like the business. But the liquid capital
sitting alongside that business is the one part of the picture
that can actually be diversified deliberately. Whether it does
that job depends entirely on where it's parked. Money sitting in
instruments correlated with the same region and currency the
operating business already carries isn't diversification. It's
more of the same risk, just in a different account.
This article is about a specific, nameable problem - currency and
volatility concentration in a business owner's total balance sheet -
and one specific mechanism that addresses part of it. It is not a
performance claim, and it does not pretend private credit is
risk-free.
What concentration risk actually looks like from the inside
The typical business owner's balance sheet - before deliberate
diversification
Four layers of concentration, usually invisible because they built
the wealth
🏭
One industry
The operating business sits in one sector. A sector
downturn hits revenue, valuation, and often the owner's
personal income simultaneously.
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One currency
Revenue, savings, and often liquid capital all denominated
in the same regional currency. A currency event hits
everything at once.
🏛️
One regulatory environment
Policy changes, tax changes, or political risk in one
jurisdiction affects the whole picture - operating business
and savings together.
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One person's ongoing involvement
The business often depends on the owner's continued active
participation. That's key-person concentration at the family
wealth level, not just the firm level.
What currency diversification is actually addressing
If a business owner's operating revenue and existing liquid savings
both sit in a currency exposed to regional inflation or political
risk, then holding capital in a different, more stable currency
addresses a specific, nameable risk: that a currency event back home
hits the operating business and the family's savings at the same
moment.
The concentrated position
Everything in one currency
- Operating revenue in home currency
- Liquid savings in home currency
- A currency event hits both simultaneously
- No separation between business risk and savings risk
→
After deliberate diversification
Partial separation achieved
- Operating revenue still in home currency
- A portion of liquid capital in SGD instruments
-
A currency event back home doesn't hit savings at the same
rate
- Concentration reduced - not eliminated
Singapore-dollar instruments - private credit vehicles domiciled and
managed there included - offer a currency and regulatory environment
distinct from many regional currencies. That is a currency argument
specifically, separate from whatever the underlying asset class's
own risk-return profile looks like. The two arguments are different
and should be evaluated separately.
Why private credit and not just Singapore-dollar cash
Currency diversification alone doesn't require private credit. A
Singapore-dollar cash account or government bond would do that job.
Private credit enters for a different reason.
SGD cash or government bonds
Addresses currency concentration only
- Moves exposure away from home currency
- Liquid - accessible when needed
- Returns driven by interest rates and monetary policy
- Correlated with public market sentiment to some degree
- Does not address return-driver diversification
Senior secured private credit
Addresses currency and return-driver concentration
- Moves exposure away from home currency
-
Returns from contractual loan terms and borrower
creditworthiness
-
Not driven by public market sentiment or valuation multiples
- Generally lower correlation to equity cycles - not zero
- Illiquid - capital locked for loan term
The risks - both ways, stated plainly
The distinctiveness of private credit's return driver is genuinely
useful. It also cuts both ways. These risks don't disappear because
the currency happens to be more stable than the investor's home
currency.
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Illiquidity risk
Capital is typically locked for the loan term. Nothing like a
publicly traded bond that can be sold whenever. This is a
structural feature, not a temporary condition.
⚠️
Credit risk
Specific to the underlying borrowers. Seniority changes
repayment order in a default - it doesn't erase the possibility
of default or loss. Underwriting quality is what does that
work.
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Manager risk
Underwriting quality varies significantly between managers.
Whether a manager can actually enforce security and recover
value after a default varies a lot. This is not uniform across
the asset class.
Comparing the two asset classes, structurally
| Dimension |
Senior secured private credit |
Public equity |
| Liquidity |
Illiquid, typically locked for loan term |
Liquid, tradable Advantage
|
| Return driver |
Contractual loan terms, borrower creditworthiness |
Market sentiment, earnings, multiples |
| Primary risk |
Credit/default, collateral enforcement |
Market/valuation, macro sentiment |
| Correlation to equity cycles |
Generally lower - not zero
Distinct
|
Direct, by definition |
| Capital structure position |
Often senior, ahead of equity
Priority
|
Residual claim, last in line |
This is not a claim that either is better. They behave differently
under different conditions, which is precisely why a business owner
might want both rather than picking one.
What "non-dilutive" actually means for a founder
Clarifying a term that causes real confusion
The operating business
Ownership structure, cap table, and equity are entirely
untouched. The family's liquid capital going into a private
credit vehicle as debt has no connection to the operating
business's own capital structure whatsoever.
The liquid capital allocation
Goes into the private credit vehicle as debt - not as equity
that touches anyone's ownership of anything. The family is the
lender, not an equity investor in the underlying borrowers.
The worry this addresses: Some owners have a
specific concern that putting money into "alternative investments"
somehow entangles or dilutes ownership of the core business. It
doesn't. The operating business and the liquid capital allocation
are entirely separate holdings. Non-dilutive describes the
structure of the allocation - it is not a risk claim.
What to check before allocating on this basis
🔍
Collateral and covenant structure
Seniority alone doesn't eliminate credit risk - underwriting
does that work. Understand specifically what collateral
secures the loans, what covenants apply, and what the
enforcement track record of the manager looks like in
practice.
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The manager's actual regulatory status
An active CMS Licence from MAS, and what it actually covers.
Confirm the specific licence class and scope - not just
whether a licence exists. Regulatory status is a function of
licensing, not firm size or AUM.
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Liquidity terms of the specific vehicle
Lock-up periods, redemption terms, and the underlying loan
maturity profile - all essential before committing.
Illiquidity is a structural feature of private credit, not a
temporary condition. Understand exactly what it means for this
specific vehicle.
⚖️
How this fits the family's whole balance sheet
Alongside the existing operating business risk, not as a
replacement for it. The right allocation size depends entirely
on the family's whole picture, liquidity needs, and existing
concentration. No general answer applies here - that is a
conversation for a qualified advisor who knows the full
financial picture.
Common questions, answered directly
Does Singapore-dollar private credit eliminate currency risk
entirely?
→
No. It shifts a chunk of currency exposure away from the home
currency toward the Singapore dollar, which reduces
concentration in one currency without eliminating currency risk
altogether - SGD moves too. The argument is about reducing
concentration in one currency, not about achieving a risk-free
position.
Is private credit less risky than public equity because it's
senior secured?
→
Not inherently. Seniority changes repayment order in a default
scenario - it doesn't erase credit risk, illiquidity risk, or
manager risk. Those are structurally different risks from public
equity's market risk, not necessarily smaller ones. The case for
private credit is about return-driver diversification, not about
being a lower-risk asset class in absolute terms.
Does "non-dilutive" mean there's no risk to the family's
capital?
→
No. Non-dilutive refers specifically to the fact that this
allocation doesn't touch the family's operating business
ownership. It says nothing about the investment risk of the
private credit allocation itself, which carries its own real
risks - credit risk, illiquidity risk, and manager risk among
them.
How much of a family's liquid capital should go into this?
→
Depends entirely on the family's whole balance sheet, liquidity
needs, and existing concentration. No general answer exists here
- that is a conversation for a qualified advisor who knows the
family's full financial picture. Any figure stated without that
context is not a recommendation, it's a guess.
Regulatory notice: XEQ Capital Pte Ltd holds
Capital Markets Services Licence No. CMS101602 issued by the
Monetary Authority of Singapore. This article is published for
general informational purposes only and does not constitute
investment, legal, or tax advice, and is not an offer or
solicitation to invest. XEQ Capital's services are available
exclusively to Accredited and Institutional Investors under Section
4A of the Securities and Futures Act 2001. Past performance is not
indicative of future results. All investments carry risk, including
the possible loss of principal. Readers should seek independent
professional advice before acting on any consideration discussed
here.
